Why short Global Defence stocks?

I mean, they look cheap, have secure growth and the US seems like they will be involved forever in Irak and Afghanistan.
Also, US defence spending is relatively low compared to history.
What's wrong then?
I think people are focusing too much on the overall GDP and not enough on the Goods component of GDP.
On that basis, the US spending is as high as during the early Eighties, when the US was seeking to outrun the Soviets with its Star Wars programme.
> Bluntly, one in five goods produced in the US are guns !


I think the market has cut down long-term growth expectations and that's why Lockheed is on 9x or BAE on 8x.
Programmes are going to be cut. It has already started but should accelerate.
To alleviate the pressure, M&A was extensively used in the 80's and 90's in the US. With their current sizes and low headline valuation, this is no longer a value creative option.

Of course, if the market does plunge, those stocks will resist better than other cyclicals. But I wonder if there is capital growth in them just yet.

Regards,

Julien