Curreny: euro to weaken versus the dollar? Some thoughts

A key consensus call is that the dollar will weaken due to quantitative easing.
I agree. The value of the dollar will go down. But maybe the Euro can beat it in this race.

Looking at some technicals, I can see the Euro in the long term downtrend, making lower lows and lower highs since its peak at 1.6000 in 2008.

Catalysts for underperformance can be found in the following:
- euro sovereign debt crisis, with Spain or even France as a culprit
- global double dip if monetary stimuli are removed
- a new Asian crisis driven by inflation acceleration putting too much pressure on their currencies, forcing them to devalue.

My call would then be the euro to strengthn towards 1.36-1.37 before falling at the end of 2011 or early 2012 to 1.15.